Yesterday, we looked at the AfD’s past activities and rather turbulent history, but what can we expect from them now after the snap elections? Not much good, that’s for sure.
Congress and Program
The AfD plans to hold a federal congress in mid-January and adopt an election program that is unlikely to be more moderate than the main points already presented to the public. The leadership understands that further radicalization aligns with the party’s strategic goals – the AfD already has a stable voter base, and this group is ready to support the party even if one or two points of the program seem to cross the line. Meanwhile, hard radicalism should help the AfD win votes from another electoral „reserve” – Germans who generally ignore elections and who previously even saw the AfD as part of the establishment.
Not surprisingly, extremists hold strong positions in the party and are extremely influential. Höcke continues to play a key role: he and his trusted allies control many local processes. Höcke has a reputation as a successful politician, as under his leadership, the AfD in Thuringia came first in the state elections last September. Notably, Weidel visited the Thuringian capital of Erfurt before her nomination as AfD list leader and spoke at a joint rally with Höcke. Without the demonstrative support of the party’s prominent extremist, her chances of leading the party would have been slimmer.
What is the next step?
A group of members of the Bundestag, led by CDU member Marco Wanderwitz, planned to take the initiative to examine the possibility of banning the AfD as incompatible with the constitutional democratic principles of the Federal Republic of Germany. However, experts agree that there is currently insufficient evidence to justify a ban on the AfD by the Constitutional Court and that the party is likely to be able to participate in the February elections.
We can predict with great certainty that the AfD will significantly increase its presence in the Bundestag. If the party’s current maximum poll numbers reflect the actual number of votes, it would win 137 seats, more than one and a half times the 83 seats it won in the 2021 elections. Even with the possible decline in popularity in previous years and the traditional departure of some parliamentary group members during the cycle (seven lawmakers left after 2021, compared to eight in the previous cycle), the AfD will remain an influential political force in the next parliament.
However, the AfD is destined to remain in opposition. All other parties with a realistic chance of entering parliament (CDU, CSU, SPD, Greens, liberal FDP, Left Party, and Sahra Wagenknecht’s Bloc) have already publicly ruled out forming a coalition government with the far right, meaning that the AfD’s political isolation will continue. Even for Wagenknecht’s party, a coalition with the AfD would mean a significant loss of support, not to mention the traditional giants of German politics.
Thus, the AfD will neither gain power nor be fully integrated into German politics. It will remain a pariah, as has already happened to many far-right parties in other European countries. However, it cannot be ruled out that some factions within the democratic parties will seek to cooperate with the radicals in the future, especially if a stable majority in the Bundestag is not achieved after the 2025 elections.
On international waters
But let’s not forget the AfD’s foreign support and political environment. Recently, Elon Musk had a live chat with Alice Weidel on X. The 74-minute conversation touched on energy policy, German bureaucracy, Adolf Hitler, Mars, and the meaning of life. The world’s richest man strongly urged Germans to support the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the upcoming elections.
The interview came against a significant backdrop, as Elon Musk was previously accused of rigging Germany’s snap elections. However, the interview, which was conducted in English, was arguably a good opportunity for the AfD to reach an international audience through Musk’s X platform. Well aware of Musk’s close relationship with Donald Trump, Alice Weidel made sure to express her support for the US president-elect and his team. She insisted that her party is „conservative” and „libertarian” but has been „negatively branded” as extremist by the mainstream media. During the interview, Weidel declared that Hitler was actually a „communist,” even though the Nazi leader who overthrew the Soviet Union was fiercely anti-communist. „He was not a conservative,” she said. „He was not a liberal. He was a communist, socialist, anti-Semitic guy.”
On other topics, they sparred – and occasionally laughed – with Musk about Germany’s notorious bureaucracy, the „crazy” abandonment of nuclear power, the need for tax cuts, freedom of speech, and „wokeness.” One of the surreal moments of the sometimes contrived, sometimes surprising conversation was when Weidel asked Musk if he believed in God. The answer – for those who want to know – was that he was open to the idea as he tries to „understand the universe as best he can”.
In the EU context, the situation in Austria is another cause for serious concern. Undoubtedly, Herbert Kickl would become chancellor, so he could form a government, too. The leader of Austria’s anti-immigration, pro-Kremlin Freedom Party has said he intends to invite the traditional center-right parties to coalition talks, paving the way for the far right to govern the country for the first time since World War II.
Herbert Kickl, whose party won the most votes in September’s elections, received a mandate from Austria’s president on Monday to form a coalition government after talks between the majority parties to form an alliance against the Freedom Party (FPÖ) stalled.
Negotiations between the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) and the center-left Social Democrats have been going on for months but failed due to disagreements over reviving Austria’s ailing economy and managing public finances. As a result, Chancellor Karl Nehammer, who had vowed that Kickl would never be the FPÖ’s junior partner as head of government, announced his intention to resign.
In a 25-minute statement to the press, Kickl said he had accepted the challenge of „rebuilding” Austria and proclaimed a „new political era” based on „hard work, honor, and courage.” He said he would „extend a hand” to Christian Stocker, the ÖVP’s interim leader, but made clear that the other party would have to understand that he would be the more minor partner in any coalition. In previous ÖVP-FPÖ coalition governments, the far-right party was the „junior” element.
Kickl, a former interior minister, added that negotiations should be based on the ÖVP’s recognition of its role in past mistakes. In a clear sign that he expects his party to secure key ministerial posts, including the chancellery, he said the ÖVP should accept that the FPÖ had come first in the parliamentary elections, winning 29.2% of the vote and beating the center-right party into second place with 26.5%.
If the ÖVP did not accept this, it would lead to snap elections, Kickl warned. Stocker has already confirmed that he would negotiate with the FPÖ if approached.
From a European perspective, the prospects are still rather unfavorable. For now, the situation is bad but not hopeless.
Sources:
https://theins.ru/opinions/dmitri-stratievski/277528
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr7errxp5jmo
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/07/austrias-far-right-leader-to-invite-centre-right-for-coalition-talks
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